The future of the combustion engine could be longer than we think
A recent German study reveals that combustion engines could well remain present for several more decades, despite the ambitious objectives of the European Union.
In brief:
- The European Union plans to ban the sale of new combustion vehicles by 2035 to reduce CO2 emissions.
- However, economist Ferdinand Dudenhöffer believes that combustion engines could remain in use for another century, despite these goals.
- The transition to electric cars poses financial and technological challenges, which could make it difficult to meet the 2035 deadline.
For some time now, combustion engines have been under criticism and pressure to reduce CO2 emissions. With a deadline of 2035, the European Union intends to encourage a major transition to electric, an option often seen as a greener solution.
Combustion engines still on track
However, this objective raises reservations, particularly on the part of car manufacturers and some experts who doubt the feasibility of such a rapid transition. Many manufacturers, already behind in their electrification goals, believe that a radical change by 2035 will be difficult to achieve. The production of electric vehicles continues to pose technical and logistical challenges, not to mention the huge investments required to modify existing manufacturing lines.
German economist Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, a member of the automotive research agency CAR, stands out by saying that combustion engines could last for another century, due to current policies and market dynamics.
An uncertain transition
Dudenhöffer points out that some countries, such as Germany, are cautious about a rapid transition to all-electric. Germany has recently ended some financial incentives for the purchase of electric vehicles, which could slow down consumer uptake of these models. Without these incentives, electric cars lose their competitiveness compared to combustion models, which are sometimes less expensive. This context could encourage some buyers to turn to more affordable combustion vehicles.
Moreover, from the manufacturers’ point of view, combustion engines often generate higher margins than EVs, the latter often being loss-making without public subsidies. “Given their cost-effectiveness, combustion engines offer attractive discounts, while electric cars, without financial support, are sometimes sold at a loss,” Dudenhöffer observes.
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